Raydium was one of the largest gains of the current market cycle, gaining from the interest in Solana and its meme coins. In January, the price peaked at $8.67 after rising 5,800%.
The price has dropped 66% since the peak, though, as the tides have rapidly changed. RAY's recent break from long-term support has raised questions about whether its bullish cycle is coming to an end.
The price has completed a five-wave upward advance (green) that began in December 2022, according to the weekly time frame RAY chart. The sub-wave count is displayed in black for wave three's extension. The price of raydium increased by more than 5,800% overall.
An ascending parallel channel contains the rise since October 2023. The middle of this channel corresponded to the peak of wave five, which was at $8.70. This stage is probably where wave five will terminate.
The price of raydium has dropped 66% since its peak, reaching a new yearly low of $2.06 today. This is a clear indication that the bullish cycle in Raydium is over.
The next nearest support level, if the slide persists, will be $1.70.
Bearish technical signs are present. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped below 50 and produced a double bearish divergence (orange, dashed). The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is currently dropping after making a bearish cross.
As a result, the weekly time frame indicates that the RAY trend is negative and that new lows are imminent.
There is no chance of a bullish trend reversal on the RAY chart for the daily time frame. The price of RAY dropped below the horizontal support line of $4.05. It also broke below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement on February 24.
Since the price frequently recovers at the 0.618 level if the loss is corrective, this verified that the bear market has begun.
At $2.20, an ascending support trend line would offer short-term respite. Nevertheless, there are no optimistic indications displayed by technical indicators. The MACD and RSI, on the other hand, are falling and have not produced any bullish divergences.
Therefore, it is possible that the price of RAY will keep declining until it hits the long-term horizontal support region at $1.80.
With an estimated $180 million in revenue in 2024, Raydium is the top decentralized exchange on Solana despite its decrease.
Comparisons between Raydium and Pumpfun, who reportedly chose to stop using Raydium and switch to their own Automated Market Maker (AMM), have made headlines. Less than 35% of Raydium's volume over the last two weeks has come from Pumpfun.
Since its peak, the price of raydium has dropped by more than 66%, and it doesn't appear to be abating.
The RAY price is probably stuck in a long-term downward trend, and the decline could last until at least $1.80.