Bitcoin Is Down, But Experts Claim Normal Behavior Post-Halving

Despite Bitcoin dropping as much as 10% so far this month, crypto analysts estimate that in past post-halving markets in January, the largest crypto to date has fallen between 25% and 30%.

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Analysts who have compared past cycles say it is historically not unusual for Bitcoin to see a significant correction in the first month of a year following a halving of the blockchain.

On January 12, cryptocurrency analyst Axel Bitblaze informed his 123,000 X followers that "January coin dumping has historically been a common occurrence in post-halving years." "Everyone is aware of the events that followed the dumps in 2017 and 2021."

This month, Bitcoin (BTC) has dropped 10% from its peak of $102,300 on January 7 to just over $91,700.

                                                                                             Source: CoinMarketCap 

Bitcoin dropped more than 25% from over $40,000 to just over $30,000 by the end of January 2021, the most recent year following the halving. By November, it had soared 130% to a new peak of $69,000.

The year following the 2016 halving, in January 2017, Bitcoin experienced a 30% decline, dropping from $1,130 to $784. After that, it increased by 2,400% that year, reaching its highest point ever—$20,000—by December.

Meanwhile, YouTuber and crypto market analyst, Crypto Rover, highlighted that over the past 12 months, Bitcoin has been on a declining trend in the first half of the month.

According to Crypto Rover, "This is just a small dip compared to what we've seen before."

On January 12, Stockmoney Lizards X, a finance analysis account, posted that Bitcoin had not yet reached the ultimate hype/pump phase. "In the upcoming year, this cycle will have more fuel."

Although the analyst admitted that each cycle was a little different, he also stated that "I think it underlines our hypothesis with mass adoption, pro-crypto governments worldwide, ETFs, etc."

Before the end of 2025, Bitcoin prices could rise from their current levels to over $200,000 with a 130% move akin to that in the previous cycle's peak year.

Conversely, a decline of the size observed in January of the previous two cycles might cause prices to fall below $70,000.

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