28 Aug 2023 Marsha Tusk
The Crypto Bear Market Is Now The Longest In History, But Hash Rates Are Skyrocketing
At roughly 500 days, the current bear cycle on the cryptocurrency markets is the longest ever. Though fundamentally speaking, things seem promising, markets have not yet responded.
Michal van de Poppe, CEO and founder of MN Trading, stated on August 28 that the present bear market is very analogous to what we saw in 2015.
“The price of BTC has dropped 62% from its peak, which occurred over two years ago. As a result, the bear market has continued for 490 days, a period significantly longer than cycle lows in the past.” Van de Poppe added.
Source: Glassnode
The longer crypto winter this cycle could be due to a number of factors. The unprecedented pandemic that swept the globe and put governments on lockdown has irreparably damaged economies and way of life.
Additionally, a number of high-profile crypto crashes in 2022 sparked a significant response from regulators keen to take action against the sector.
The world's battered economies have also been hit by rising interest rates, which have given investors lower-risk returns but also increased the debt pile.
The price of BTC has dropped 62% from its peak, which occurred over two years ago. As a result, the bear market has continued for 490 days, a period significantly longer than cycle lows in the past.
It's not all bad news, either. BlackRock, the biggest asset manager in the world, is interested in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies; it has investments in significant mining firms and has applied for a spot ETF. Analysts predict that this year will see the approval of such a product, which will result in significant institutional investment.
Other fundamentals include a shift toward cryptocurrencies in Asia and Hong Kong and the impending halving of the Bitcoin supply. The analyst also said that “The thing is, during the current period, these events are not being reflected in price at all.”
“They lag behind as the market is stuck in the ‘bear market modus’, as the past 2 years price has been falling.” Van de Poppe concluded.
Hash rates peak, but hash revenue drops
While the hash rate has increased to new highs, Bitcoin mining revenue, or "hash price"—a measure of dollars made per TH/s per day—has fallen to levels not seen since the collapse of FTX in November 2022.
The hash rate of the Bitcoin network reached a new peak of 414 exahashes per second (EH/s) on August 18. According to Blockchain.com, the network hash rate increased 80% in the previous 12 months and 54% over the beginning of 2023 at the top.
While the network appears secure, things are not as pleasant for Bitcoin miners as revenue has dropped drastically, reaching levels seen when BTC fell to a market cycle low of roughly $16,500 in November 2022.
HashPriceIndex reports that revenue is just $0.060 per terahash per second per day, which is less than half of what it was at the beginning of May when the Bitcoin Ordinals inscription frenzy resulted in a high demand for block space.
Dylan LeClair, a market analyst, reacted to the declining income and hash rate peak by saying that more effective new rigs will continue to be built, "but it's almost time for the price to outpace," which means that prices need to increase to maintain mining profitable at such high hash rates.
According to reports, Bitcoin miners have been using money from stock sales in the second quarter to stay afloat during the bear market.
According to a Bloomberg story from August 24th, the 12 largest publicly traded miners raised $440 million from stock sales in the second quarter of 2023.
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