21 Feb 2022 Marsha Tusk
Bitcoin Won’t Experience A Bull Run Until The End Of 2024, Expert Claims
Bitcoin’s price performance over the past three months sets up a bearish trend, as the biggest crypto in the world tumbled from $59,367.97 down almost 50% to a low of $33,184.06. Since the dip, the price per Bitcoin spiked up, but recent price volatility and resistance around $40,000 got experts thinking Bitcoin is destined to undergo a wave of bearish momentum.
Source: Crypto Browser
To further add to the bearish momentum scenario, Du Jun – co-founder of one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges, Huobi – stressed that Bitcoin may not see a bullish trend reversal until late 2024 or the beginning of 2025.
The reason, according to Jun, Bitcoin’s price performance is closely related to a process called halving, which occurs every few years. Jun emphasized the way Bitcoin’s price reacts to the mining reward cut, with the price per BTC usually reaching an all-time high in the months following a halving event.
Indeed, historical data suggest such a trend, as the last halving occurred in May 2020, which drove Bitcoin prices up to an all-time high above $68,000. A similar price movement pattern was also evident in the 2016 halving, which saw Bitcoin reaching its first milestone high just above $20,000 at the end of 2017.
However, the trend has a clear bearish pattern forming in the months after a high. For instance, 2018 was nothing but bearish momentum for the entire crypto market.
“If this circle continues, we are now at the early stage of a bear market,” Du noted in an interview for CNBC, adding that “it is really hard to predict exactly because there are so many other factors which can affect the market as well — such as geopolitical issues including war, or recent Covid-19, which can also affect the market.”
According to Huobi’s co-founder, some market participants may consider the recent price development as a “crypto winter”, which could result in Bitcoin taking a sideways trading pattern.
However, in contrast with Dun’s stance, trading experts like the legendary PlanB predicted a bullish outcome for Bitcoin in 2022. For instance, PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model predicted a $100,000 close for Bitcoin. PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, however, does not take into consideration ongoing and upcoming world happenings that affect both traditional and cryptocurrency markets.
One such event is the FED’s decision to do several interest hikes. Furthermore, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has inflicted damage to both traditional and crypto markets by reducing cash flows, and hence, money that retailers and institutions spare for investments.
To top it all up, the Russia-Ukraine political crisis remains unsettled, with Russia still gathering troops around the Ukrainian borderlines, but global political leaders are certain that a war conflict is not likely to happen.
Also, regulatory pressure may put a downwards push on the crypto market, as the battle between crypto projects and regulators continues.
Pricewise, Bitcoin did not manage to keep up its gains, which correlated to an 11.59% price decrease in the past seven days. However, trading volumes remain high, which could prove beneficial to the world’s largest crypto to date. The rest of the crypto sector followed suit, with Ethereum erasing yet another 1.03% of its price and over 11% weekly.
However, there are some projects which recorded positive price movement amid the ongoing bearish push. Terra (LUNA) is up 3%, securing a price over $50 per token. Shiba Inu (SHIB) is also up 2%, but the rest of the top-100 best-performing cryptos are mostly in the red or with minuscule price increases.
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